This beach town could vanish by 2100 – but locals don’t want to leave

At first glance, it looks like paradise.
Golden sand stretching for miles. Surfers chasing the last light. Children building forts from driftwood.

But beneath the postcard-perfect surface, a quiet battle is unfolding.
This beach town – once seen as a summer escape – is now listed in climate reports as a high-risk zone for sea-level rise.
By the end of the century, parts of it may no longer exist.

And yet, the people here?
They have no intention of leaving.

A warning from the sea

Take Haumoana, a small coastal community in Hawke’s Bay.
Over the past decade, king tides and storm surges have repeatedly flooded homes and carved away the shore.

Locals have watched the sea creep closer, year after year.
In some areas, backyards have shrunk by several metres. Insurance premiums have skyrocketed. One or two homes have already been demolished.

“It’s like the ocean’s breathing down our necks,” says Margaret H., 66, who has lived on the same street since 1983.
“But this is home. I raised my kids here. I’m not going anywhere.”

According to the Ministry for the Environment, Haumoana and similar towns face “managed retreat” as a likely option within decades.
But “retreat” isn’t a word locals like to hear.

When home means more than safety

Leaving isn’t just a financial decision – it’s an emotional one.
Many homes here have been passed down through generations. Others were built with retirement dreams in mind. For some, it’s the only place they’ve ever known.

“You think we’ll just pack up and leave because the government says so?”
That’s what Richard P., a local fisherman, asks.
“They don’t understand what it means to belong somewhere.”

Despite rising risks, many residents are fighting to stay.
They’re building seawalls with their own money. Reinforcing dunes. Attending council meetings.
And every summer, the town fills again with laughter, sunscreen, and the smell of fish and chips.

Still, reality looms:

  • Flood maps show growing risk zones
  • Councils are under pressure to act
  • Some banks have started to reconsider mortgages in flood-prone areas

And while there’s no official evacuation plan yet, time is ticking.

What will be left?

Even if some residents stay, others are being priced out or forced to leave by insurers.
And that raises a difficult question:
What happens to a town when half of it vanishes?

Will it become a ghost beach? A case study?
Or will it transform into a symbol of resistance in the face of climate collapse?

Experts warn that more than 10,000 homes in coastal New Zealand could be unlivable by 2100.
Haumoana might just be the beginning.

David Stewart Avatar

4 thoughts on “This beach town could vanish by 2100 – but locals don’t want to leave”

  1. Wow this is such climate change alarmism nonsense . “In the face of climate collapse “. What scientific evidence did you base this on? The reports on climate ‘adaptation’ being spat out for every region in NZ by expensive consultants, use extreme & implausible data, such that even the IPCC (look it up) have stated the modelling is extreme & implausible! But using it suits the climate change fear mongering narrative. Who benefits? Insurance companies, banks, large corporations that will buy up cheap land.
    Read anything from professor ian Plimer, The CO2 coalition, the Intel Group, but please please do some actual research & stop expousing this nonsense.

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    • The fact is that houses in Haumoana have already fallen into the ocean because the ocean is advancing towards the shore. If you’d like to dispute that, perhaps you should buy a house in Haumoana and see for yourself.

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  2. Can you cite any examples of “large corporations” buying up cheap land? Do you have a link for the report or release from the IPCC that says the modelling used by NZ consultants is “extreme and implausible”? And what about the innumerable academics that are alarmed about the situation? Should we ignore them in favour of the odd maverick and fossil fuel-funded groups?

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  3. Golden sands? Seriously? Haumoana is a stony, not very appealing beach town. I know it well, my father was brought up there and my Grandmother lived in Gow Avenue. It doesn’t look much different than when I used to visit for school holidays 60 years ago. Trying to save something that hasn’t progressed that much for that long seems an exercise in futility to me.

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